I'm working on my master's degree thesis and need to do quite some research. I followed some classes and did some research before, but mostly on regression models and such. In my thesis I think i don't need to perform a regression analysis, but something like a trend analysis. I did some googling, but didn't find what I was looking for. Maybe some of you can help me with the following.
To simplify, I'm researching the following:
I expect (in a certain setting) that if a business shows excessive profits in one year, it's profit would decrease two or three years later and stabalize one or two years after that time.
So: if business X has a profit above average within the population, I expect the profit to be at or below average two or three years later and on average afterwards.
I probably need to set a threshold to at what excess (above average) I expect this trent, but that's something I think I need to worry about later.
I got a dataset of about 100 companies, over a period of 12 years.
Is it possible to do something like a trend analysis with this expectation on the total dataset, or do I need to select series first that apply?
Hope some of you can help me. Or refer me to an informative page.
Kind regards, Bouke
ps. excuse me for errors within my English language: i'm Dutch.